"A Putin collapse? The dangers of wishful thinking" Topic

"The Carnegie Center's Maksim Samorukov recently published an article in Foreign Affairs entitled "Putin's brittle regime. Like the Soviet one that preceded it, his system is always on the brink of collapse."

The argument is driven by a straightforward historical analogy. The Soviet system appeared strong and immutable, and virtually no one predicted its collapse. But collapse it did. Likewise, the Putin system appears strong and resilient, and few people can imagine its collapse. But collapse it will.

One can understand why this argument would be attractive to Foreign Affairs. Wishful thinking always gets an audience: people like to be told what they want to hear. Absent any prospects of a successful counter-offensive in Ukraine, the most likely scenario for Ukrainian victory is regime collapse in Russia…"

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Armand

This was true for the Romanovs, too- the system is no more capable than the man on the top, and the no more stable than his relationship with his likely successor. Insofar as the policy the current incumbent of the chair or the throne tends to derive from powerful preexisting cultural preconceptions that are widely shared within Russia, however, the new boss's outlook and attitudes toward his neighbors will probably look broadly similar to foreigners.

"It ain't over till it's over" … Putin will have to die sooner or later.

"Putin will have to die sooner or later."

You sure, Ralph?

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That's what I dear. The current Russian state will persist for a long time, and great evil will be done by it. Putin thinks he has the Russian populace on his side, and it looks like he is right.

Absent any prospects of a successful counter-offensive in Ukraine, the most likely scenario for Ukrainian victory is regime collapse in Russia…

I would add that a number of trends look bad for the Russians, going into 2025 and beyond.

Why wouldn't it? There's a lot of basic continuity in Russian foreign policy. Ask their neighbors, who get invaded while the Russians complain about how insecure they feel, a condition that never quite manages to be improved by those periodic jumps of the border by a couple of hundred kilometers.

Mortality is the ultimate leveler. Putin can cling to the fantasy that his mortality is linked to his personal destiny all he wants, but even he knows in his heart of hearts that his tether is running out and his legacy will be ignominy.

That perplexing moment he finds himself on the floor of his bathroom, face pressed against the base of his toilet, angry his end is so ridiculous will bring him down ar few pegs.

Porcelain or gold plate doesn't matter.

Putin's death will not solve anything. Well, let Kadyrov be next (and he will easily be elected in the most democratic elections), or some new Prigozhin – will it make you feel better?)))

In 1984 I predicted the end of the Soviet Union. It was obvious if we arms raced them they would have to give up the arms race or collapse or declare war.

Since they did not want a nuclear war, and since they did not want to give up the arms race, they collapsed.

Russia won't change as long as Putin is alive. As long as Russia has nations who will buy their oil, and sell them other goods, Iran and China in particular, they will continue the Putin Doctrine of constant war and continuous expansion of Russian territory, even if it is some other Russian running the show after Putin's death.

A catastrophic loss in Ukraine with Zelensky getting all of Ukraine back could change that dynamic. But I don't see that happening. The West is too timid to send Ukraine enough weapons and ammo quickly enough to win decisive victories, just enough to keep the war going. Just like we did in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan.

In the long term the real enemies of the West and Russia are radical Islam and communist China. Putin thinks he can manipulate them both to his advantage. All that means is that they eat him last.

But what do I know? I am just some old guy who plays with army men.

Mike Bunkermeister Creek

You sure, Ralph?

I am very sure of little in the US and even other parts of the world.

If Putin dies, would we even know ? It is rumored like Saddam he may have body doubles.

Putin did not make Russia a threat to NATO again without help from other Russians.

And nothing says if Putin dies, that there won't be another Russia leader(s) to emerge that would be as bad or worse …

Looks like an interesting book you posted. I have so much of my library to read. I have not bought a book in years. Save for recently a very good friend from the 101. Wrote a book about his time in Mid East with the US Army. I found it very interesting. And again, showed in many situations show US elected and appointed leaders mucked things up. "In Strange Company" by COL Roland Tiso. Highly recommended …

In the long term the real enemies of the West and Russia are radical Islam and communist China.

Yes the threat of radical islam showed its ugly head again. The GWoT is far from over.

E.g.: Recently on US universities with dozens of anti-Israeli/pro-Hamas riots, etc. As well as members of the leadership and education supports this movement. E.g. : "The 5th Column", the enemy from within etc. The enemy is not at the gate, they are on US campuses and in US elected and appointed officials.

At this time IMO Putin will not "collapse" anytime soon. I have a better chance of "bedding" Stormy Daniels and Karen Mcdougle than that happening … [A man can dream can't he?]

The Biden Admin gave it their best shot with the Wagner Coup against Putin. It failed, and actually ended up making Putin stronger after the purges and crackdowns that followed.

The sneaky ^$%#(!*+@s stole that from Mark Twain ! He ain't no Red !!!!